The subsidy ends when capital gets impatient

• The OpenAI IPO. Public markets will have to price $1.60-per-$1.00 economics — the first honest mark on the subsidy.
• Token prices. −41% and falling. If the floor breaks, revenue per token falls faster than volume can grow.
• The top 1%. 80% of enterprise revenue already cut spend ~10%. Watch for cap enforcement, not just caution.
• Anthropic margin. EBITDA-positive today — if it holds while OpenAI burns $12B+/quarter, the divergence becomes the story.
• Cloud backlogs. 43-54% of hyperscaler futures depend on two customers. Any renegotiation ripples through the entire market.